Yawkey Talk

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2010 US MASTERS (1-Pay) $100 WIN
Series Name	Sell	Buy
PHIL MICKELSON	36	41	+143
LEE WESTWOOD	35	40	+150
TIGER WOODS	16	20	+400
KJ CHOI	6	8	+1150
FRED COUPLES	2	4	+2400

Gambling on the Masters is, bar none, my favorite degenerate tendency.  If I were to tell you that the biggest choke artist in the history of golf is bump-drafting 1 stroke behind some english bum, thus creating a perfect house-of-cards for the e'er down on his luck lefty, i'd imagine you'd be interested in shorting his contract. Seeing Tiger's name third from the bottom of this list is the equivalent of Randy Johnson peeking his snake-eyes over his A2000.  Buying in on a T-Woo contract for $20 seems like a good play because that stock is sure as shit going to steadily increase as he plunders the front 9. With this good v. evil, phil-tiger rivalry ramping up, Tiger is going into kill mode to put to rest any argument regarding the quality of his golf game and thus, putting Phil back in his place. Tiger's going to add another 40 Long suit coat to the old rack and awkwardly converse with Jim Nantz while Mickelson sobs into two-shrimp tacos and bunless chicken sandwiches.

DGL First Round Special: A peek into Biff's Book

Just finished filling out my bracket. Was the committee serious? Picking these games was child's play. I was Billy Madison and  the games were schoolchildren; instead of deriving satisfaction from dominating helpless brats with a dodgeball, I plan on satisfying my need to spend copious amounts of boner bucks tomorrow when I am fucked up from St. Patty's day festivities and getting kicked out of "Hustlers" on the west side highway at 4pm (all whilst wearing sweat pants, but you already knew that). That's right, I am spending the profits from this opening round upset a day in advance; consider me Enron's accounting firm...only with a happy ending. As I foreshadowed earlier, I am so confident in this pick that I may as well have been given Biff Tannen's gambling book just to ensure it's accuracy. Anyways, if you like free money, read the next line....

The Pick- Murray St. +140 vs. Vanderbilt 

The fighting Murray Galpers, baby. 

Editors Note: Biff also mentioned something about Utah st. and Old Dominion but he was too busy bitching about the blind spot in McFly's car that I couldn't hear what he was saying.

DGL #022: 'Nova (-3.5) @ Cincinnati

 

 'Nova has been struggling of late, though their three-of-four slide is a bit inflated. Those three losses were against a streaking UConn team, at Pitt (brutal place to play) and at 'Cuse (the nation's number one). Look for Scottie Reynolds and Co. to get back to being the top-5 team they have been all season against a squad that is 3-6 in their last nine Big East contests. Jay Wright should take this spread as a slap in the face. 

The Pick- 'Nova (-3.5) @ UC

Also, take the Over in the C's game. The +/- is at a modest 189.5, and Perk will be out (bad for defense) while The Truth returns (good for offense). Plus, the Celtics have played exactly ZERO minutes of solid defense in their last four games. That's an official statistic. 

DGL #021: So. Carolina @ UK UNDER 145

UK will be looking to embarrass SC after the Gamecocks handed Cal & Co. their only loss of the season. The Rupp will be rocking, making SC's task of repeating nearly impossible. But they will certainly try, and to so it will take another solid defensive effort. SC has struggled to score all season against quality teams, and Kentucky is among the country's elite. It is hard to imagine the Gamecocks scoring more than 65, meaning the Wildcats can score 79 or under and those who took the Under would still win. Be one of "those".

The Pick- South Carolina @ UK UNDER 145

Degenerate Gambler's Log: Mexicano Tennis Edition

I'm sure you all have been watching the ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel, so I won't bore you with any insight. What I will tell you is that I have bet on the favorite's money line on men's tennis nine times in the past two days and I have won eight times with one push (not sure how that works but whatever). I also know nothing about most of these matches I have bet on, so it's a nice easy bet that seems to work out nearly every time. So go with Spain's Fernando "The Nando" Verdasco (-180) over Portugal's Juan "The Mon" Monaco and you will surely be rewarded.

DISCLAIMER: NEVER FOLLOW THIS "FAVORITE ALWAYS WINS" STRATEGY FOR WOMEN'S TENNIS. IT IS LIKELY THE FAVORITE WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE MATCH HALFWAY THROUGH WITH CRAMPS OR ANOTHER PROBLEM OF THAT ILK.

DGL #019: The Tipping Point

 

When I started the DGL, I promised myself I would stop for good if I ever went below 50%. It's not because I'm afraid for the bank accounts of our followers; I know nobody follows my "advice" and that plenty of people have gone straight to the bank betting the exact opposite of what I post. I just can't handle the embarrassment. Well, I'm 10-10 now, meaning one more slip-up and I have to shut the DGL down (or pass it off to one of the site's other two degenerates). It's tipping point time, ladies and gentlemen. 

The Buckeyes visit Penn State tonight in a Big Ten matchup that would only matter if it were a football game. Ohio State is red-hot (Purdue game aside), coming of a big win in East Lansing while catapulting into the top-ten on the back of the country's best player, Evan Turner. They're laying only 7.5 tonight, a modest spread against the Big Ten's bottom-feeder. Talor Battle is a decent player for the Nittany Lions, but he's effectively their whole team. Even if he goes shot-for-shot with Turner (no way in hell this happens), Penn States supporting cast won't be able to hang with Lighty, Diebler, Buford and Big D. 

Do me proud, Bucks.

The Pick- Buckeyes (-7.5) @ Nittany Kittens

DGL #018: Nate-Rob Arrives

 

I searched high and low for a player prop on Nate Robinson's total points tonight, but to no avail. I would've torn up the over, and I don't care if it was set at 50. First game in Celtic green, playing without a leash against his former team and a coach who benched him for 14 straight December games? Straight to the bank. 

Instead I'll have to settle for the UNDER on tonight's game (+/- 197). The C's will be playing their first game at home in what feels like an eternity and hope to build on the success of a promising road trip. It will take a solid defensive effort to do so, as the C's may be without The Truth. Tracy McGrady may also sit out tonight's game, which would be huge. Kidding. McGrady's a useless and completely overrated jackass, so it couldn't be more fitting that he is now battling injuries and stealing money from the Knicks. NY scored 67 last night against an average Milwaukee team and should struggle mightily again tonight against a pumped up C's squad.  

The Pick- Knicks @ Celtics UNDER 197

A New But Equally-Degenerate Gambler's Log

From looking at LTW's computer the other day, it appears he has gone off the deep end, betting against Joey "Twinkle Fingers" Hernandez in the boxing mecca known as the Fort Lauderdale Don Taft University Center as well as on soccer matches in which he'd be hard-pressed to be able to pronounce either team's name. Thus, that leaves the rest of us at Yawkey Talk to come up with some gambling insight for those people who like real sports. So with out further adiedu I give you, from the great  state of Wisconsin, the Marquette Golden Eagles -2 @ Providence. But wait. Isn't Marquette a ghastly 1-5 on the road? And hold on a second. Don't the Providence Friars have God on their side? Pump your breaks. Isn't prostitution legal in Rhode Island, causing a potential distraction for those naive Midwesterners?

Well the answers, my inquisitive friend, are sure to disappoint you. However I will let you down easy by telling you the facts from what I think will be least to most devastating for you.

1) While Marquette has struggled scoring wins on the road, lets look at their road losses: Wisconsin by 9, West Virginia by 1, Villanova by 2, Depaul by 1, and Syracuse by 5. We are talking very close losses to the #2, #4, and #6 teams in the country. Then there is a worse loss to Wisconsin but that is the #16 team in the country and a team that never loses at home. Finally, losing to Depaul. Well, that loss stunk like someone shit in their cereal but they were literally seven-tenths of a second from winning that game and while they play like donkey balls Depaul does have a winning record at home. Anywho, this is the time when Marquette will start turning these close losses into wins, especially now that they are done with that murderer's row of Big East teams. The Golden Eagles have also won their past 3 games, including a win over Uconn, so they are ready to become road warriors that Mad Max would be proud of.

Now for your other queries:

2) If God existed, would he really care about sports? Luckily, he doesn't exist. Good, glad that's settled.

3) Prostitution isn't legal anymore. Sucks right? But you can still go to Cheaters for a special "lap dance," so what does the term "legal" really mean anyway? In any case, I'm sure coach Buzz Williams will keep the beaks of those Golden Eagles as dry as possible until after the game, thus ensuring a solid road win for Marquette.

DGL's Weekend Special: Jambalayaaaaa!

I'm gonna go home and get a big pot! Seriously, am I the only person taking the Saints on Sunday? I hear an awful lot of talk about how great Peyton has looked in the playoffs, how feisty their defense has been, etc.....That's all good and well, but looking great against the Jets and Ravens isn't exactly an ivy league resume. This game has all the fixins for a Saints victory and I can't fucking wait to see Peyton uncomfortably prowling the sidelines making that grinning-chin face, while Brees and Co. march down the field at will. Dwight Freeney's ankle is fucked, meaning no double team is necessary and Brees should have plenty of time back there to pump fake and move safetys around like chess pieces. Bill Polian, pat yourself on the back for resting Freeney those extra weeks. I bet his ankle wouldn't have been tweaked if he had maintained game consistency on his body instead of being "fresh." Does that make sense? In my twisted world it does.

 You give Gregg Williams two weeks to gameplan against a gutless QB (see: ANY time Peyton is about to get sacked, cowering like a bitch as he lays down instead of taking a hit like a real football player) and his tomato-can comrades, you have a recipe for a whoooole lot of chin strap snappin' for Peyton. I mean, what has Peyton Manning accomplished? He's won a Super Bowl. So has Trent Dilfer; in my mind they are equal, maybe even giving the edge to Trent Dilfer because he was never afraid to throw an interception (in admirable fashion of course). Another dirty little secret is that the Colts' special teams are putrid. They have been giving up huge punt/kick returns allll season long. Maybe thats a weakness when your playing Reggie Bush? Just a thought. It also doesn't help that the "braintrust" for the Colts is a cross between Santa Claus and Gepetto. Two men that I certainly respect, but on Sunday I expect a lump of coal and the strings to be cut on his Peyton puppet. 

I just cant wait to look up and see the Saints up by 6 and then Vegas tacks on another 5 points for you just to make sure. Everyone and their brother are taking the Colts and last time I checked that's a bad thing when it comes to gambling. Austin Collie will then resume his ambitious burger flipping career and Pierre Garcon can move back to Haiti. I mean, he has to, right? He's only been exploiting that Haiti flag for attention every single chance he can. Grow up.  

Prediction: Saints 31 Colts 24

  

Degenerate Gambler's Log #015: Hoops...and more hoops

 

    This will be a bit of a breather for Louisville, who has played Kentucky, Villanova and Pitt in three of their last five. Seton Hall will put up a fight. They've had a week to prepare for this game and they're at home. But Louisville is a better team and can frustrate the shit out of opponents when they get the press going. As long as they drain their shots, they shouldn't have any trouble beating this spread.

The Pick- Louisville (-1.5) @ Seton Hall

 

    I know it's sacrilegious to pull for the Lakers in New England but I personally hate LeBron and the Cavs a lot more than Kobe and the Lakers. I don't really hate the Lakers, actually. It's more pity. I mean, it's not Pau Gasol's fault he's so hideous to look at; it's his parents'. It's not Ron Artest's fault he's completely insane; it's the drugs' and hooch. Sasha Vujacic's fruitcake headband and propensity for crying? That's all on Europe.

    On a serious note, the Cavs will be missing Mo Williams while the Lakers will be looking to avenge an ugly loss at home on Christmas.

The Pick- Lakers (+130) @ Cavs

DGL Record: 10-7

Degenerate Gambler's Log #014: Georgetown @ Pitt (-1.5)

 

The crazy thing is that this isn't a huge game by Big East standards. One look at the schedules of the Hoyas and Pantherslets you know that this is "just another conference game" for these two teams. But it's still going to be one hell of a matchup and the spread's looking good on Pitt's side. Jamie Dixon's team hasn't lost at home in 31 games, and are playing at a higher, more consistent level than the Hoyas right now. Considering the spread essentially makes the game a pick-'em, I'm liking the Panthers.

The Pick- Georgetown @ Pitt (-1.5)

Degenerate Gambler's Log #013: Texas @ K-State UNDER (158.5)

 

The crazy thing is that this isn't a huge game by Big East standards. One look at the schedules of the Hoyas and Pantherslets you know that this is "just another conference game" for these two teams. But it's still going to be one hell of a matchup and the spread's looking good on Pitt's side. Jamie Dixon's team hasn't lost at home in 31 games, and are playing at a higher, more consistent level than the Hoyas right now. Considering the spread essentially makes the game a pick-'em, I'm liking the Panthers.

The Pick- Georgetown @ Pitt (-1.5)

 

Goin' back to the bread-maker. No more picking NFL games just because they're important. 2-4 this weekend was ugly.

   

Degenerate Gambler's Log #012: Another Three-For-All

This is the pick I'm least sure of. In fact, I probably wouldn't have picked it if it weren't the playoffs and I didn't feel obligated. That may not inspire much confidence, but it had to be said. I think this one could go either way. I'm going with Dallas because they're the hotter team, getting the points, and could easily win the game. The Cowboys have a very balanced offensive attack and Tony Romo is playing great football. More importantly, I see Favre throwing a crippling interception or two as a result of Dallas' relentless pass rush.

The Pick- Dallas (+2.5) @ Minnesota

The Chargers are the best team in football, and I don't see the Jets hanging with them on Sunday. Revis may neutralize Vincent Jackson, but they won't have an answer for the rest of San Diego's arsenal. Rivers has way too many other weapons (Gates, Floyd, Naanee, Sproles) and I think LT will have a big day. He has no more injury excuses to pout over/hide behind, and he has no choice but to back up the Electric Glide video. The Charger's D has also been a bit underrated this year and shouldn't have much trouble forcing The Sanchize into a few costly mistakes.

The Pick- New York Jets @ San Diego (-7)

 

I did a triple-take when I saw this line. UConn may be inconsistent, but -1.5 at Michigan?

Easy Money- UConn (-1.5) @ Michigan

Degenerate Gambler's Log #011: Saturday Three-For-All

The second round of the NFL playoffs is loaded with great matchups, perhaps none better than the first. Arizona at New Orleans promises to be an old-fashioned shootout between two teams who score tons of points and allow almost as many. The Cards will be without Anquan Boldin, but I'm not so sure that's a bad thing. Steve Breaston and Early Doucet combined for 207 yards and 3 TDs on 13 catches last week in his absence, and are clearly in sync with the Warner. The Cards also have a quietly solid rushing attack. Tim Hightower is a great short-yardage and third-down back and possesses excellent receiving skills out of the backfield while Beanie Wells is a powerful runner with a deceptively quick burst and one hell of a stiff arm. Oh, and Larry Fitzgerald is catches everything.

On the other side of the field, New Orleans hasn't put four great quarters together since they blew out the Pats in Week 12. They were a little bit banged up, sure, but how the Saints finished their season can't be ignored. In Weeks 13-16 they barely beat the Redskins and Falcons, got beat convincingly at home against the Cowboys, and lost to the pathetic Bucs. The Superdome crowd will be crazy, but I think the time off may may have been more curse than blessing for an offense steeped in rhythm and timing.

The Pick- Arizona (+7) @ New Orleans

While rest may hurt a team like the Saints, it should help a team like the Colts. At least they know what they're getting into and it allowed some key players to get healthy. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are 100% and will have Flacco on his heels all night. If Flacco throws for 34 yards again this week, Baltimore will get blown out. Even if Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have big days, Flacco will have to take shots downfield to keep up with Manning and the Colts. Isn't happening. The Ravens blew their load against the Pats, a team they'd wanted to exact revenge on since the timeout debacle in 2007. Picking any team led by a member of the Manning family makes me sick to my stomach, but the Colts should be in the driver's seat in this one, and are getting a favorable line.

The Pick- Baltimore @ Indy (-6.5)

Wisconsin visits Columbus tonight for a showdown with the Buckeyes. The Bucks lost to the Badgers by 22 on New Years Eve, mustering only 43 points. But Ohio State didn't have Evan Turner for that game, and will be looking for payback at home. Turner had 32 points in Ohio State's big upset at Purdue Tuesday, and will lead the charge tonight.

The Pick- Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-6)

Degenerate Gambler's Log #010: Orlando @ Portland (+4.5)

 

Orlando has been playing terribly recently, and is 2-7 in their last nine road games. Vince Carter is hurt, and the Magic will be playing their third game in the last four nights as part of their current Left Coast road-trip. Portland, on the other hand, is playing their last game of a five-game homestand and will be looking for a big win before hitting the road. Though Brandon Roy is battling a hamstring injury, coach Nate McMillan thinks he'll play. Rudy Fernandez is also expected to return tonight, giving Portland enough depth to match up with the Magic's deep bench. The Trail Blazers will have trouble slowing down Dwight Howard, but have too many pieces coming together at the right time. Take the points, and I wouldn't rule out the money line.

The Pick- Portland (+4.5) vs. Orlando

PS- If you're really looking to roll the dice, take a look at the Over/Under (194.5) in this game. 24 of Orlando's 39 games have gone over this mark, and while Portland has only seen 19 of their 40 games go over this point, a closer look at the numbers shows that this stat is a bit inflated. Many of those Under games came at the beginning of the season when the TrailBlazers had Greg Oden down low cleaning the glass, altering shots, and fouling the living crap out of anything within his 7.5-foot wingspan. Since Oden got hurt (again), 12 of their 19 games have seen the Over side of 194.5. Still not sold? Throw both of these picks in a 4-point teaser and breathe a little easier.

UPDATE- Brandon Roy is out and Vince Carter is active. I still stand by the pick.

Degenerate Gambler's Log #009: IU (+14) @ Michigan

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

I don't know who the first person to say that was, but he was one smart bastard. Sure, my recent picks have all been in college basketball, but what else would I be betting on? The NBA? Thanks, but no thanks. Talk about a crapshoot. Might as well just put my money in a paper shredder.

Without further adieu...

Big Ten basketball is by and large excruciating to watch, but easy(ish) to handicap. IU visits Ann Arbor tonight in a matchup against the Wolverines. Michigan is laying 14 points, which is interesting considering how overrated Michigan is as team, and that they already lost to Indiana once this year (albeit in Bloomington). Though Indiana is no powerhouse, they've played a tough schedule so far this season (vs. Maryland, vs. Pitt, vs. Kentucky, @ OSU, @ Illinois) and is better than their 7-8 record indicates. Michigan may win, but it won't be by more than 14.

The Pick- Indiana (+14) @ Michigan

Degenerate Gambler's Log #008: Both Sides of 6.5

If you like big-time college basketball you should be growing roots on the couch tonight during the Pitt/UConn game. The Big East is the best conference in college basketball and pops out nail-biters like that filthy wench Kate Gosselin pops out children. Pitt/UConn should be no different. Pitt is playing with a head of steam after "stumbling" (one of their two losses is to Texas) out of the gate, while UConn is playing their typically inconsistent brand of basketball. The Huskies can look like a Tournament 1-seed one night, and a CYO team the next. Or they can trot out both versions on the same night, like they did when they pissed away a 15-point halftime lead against Georgetown last Saturday. I'll take momentum and the points over unpredictability.

The Pick- Pitt (+6.5) @ UConn

Michigan State starts a three-game homestand tonight in East Lansing, where they are 9-0 this season (average margin of victory: 19.7 pts). They'll be facing Tubby Smith's Golden Gophers, who are coming off a victory at home against a very good Ohio State team and could be in store for a letdown game.

The Pick- Michigian St (-6.5) vs. Minnesota

Degenerate Gambler's Log: Kentucky (-3.5) @ Florida

Tear this one up. Kentucky is too good to be laying just 3.5 points against a young and inconsistent Gators squad. Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins will dominate the paint while John Wall controls the tempo from the outside. Florida simply can't match up. True, Florida is unbeaten against Kentucky at home in their last five matchups, but that statistic is irrelevant given two key points: These aren't the Joakim Noah/Al Horford/Corey Brewer Gators anymore, and Billy Gillispie is no longer the coach at UK.

The Pick- Kentucky (-3.5) @ Florida

PS- In other news, Ohio State is getting 9 at Purdue tonight. The Buckeyes are still trying to find their rhythm since the return of Evan Turner, but he's one of the five best players in the country nonetheless. This one should be a Big Ten slugfest that goes down to the wire. Take the points.

Degenerate Gambler's Log #006: Villanova (+130) @ Louisville

This is a pick that will probably blow up in my face. That's what happens when a line is "too good to pass up". But this line really is too good to pass up. I understand Louisville is at home. I also understand that Pitino will be breaking out the white suit to go along with the student's effort to "white-out" the Wildcats. But Villanova plays as well together as any team in the country and don't strike me as a team that would be afraid of opposing fans wearing T-shirts that lack color. Plus, if this game is close at the end, Villanova has Scottie Reynolds and Louisville doesn't.

The Pick- Villanova (+130) @ Louisville

Degenerate Gambler's Log #005: Bengals -2.5? Really?

Is this line serious? It's as though Vegas just installed an ATM machine that spits out $20's 'til they run out. Possible snow showers in Cincy works out perfectly for the best running game in football; Benson should have fresh legs too, after the Bengals's JV squad threw the game last week. With Kris Jenkins out, David Harris is the only pure run stopper in the Jets's front seven. Good thing he didn't practice all week and is nursing a sprained right ankle, which should work out nicely on a wet field. The Bengals aren't a pass-heavy offense, rendering  'Revis Island' as a moot point. Perhaps good coaching could carry the Jets? No. Thinking of Rex Ryan reminds me of the scene in Sopranos when Tony is hosting his father-in-law's birthday party; the searing image includes Tony saying hello to the birthday boy by swinging his Satriale's link sausages around his face. There is no way this sausage wielding clown outcoaches Marvin Lewis and the gritty, heavy-hearted Bengals, take the free money and thank me later.

The Pick- Bengals (-2.5) vs. Jets